After numerous debates and campaign ads, the road to Iowa’s Democratic caucuses is still paved with uncertainty.
Each of the four frontrunners has a decent chance of winning, according to a poll released by CNN and the Des Moines Register. In the past year, each of the frontrunners have put a significant amount of resources into Iowa. For the past two decades, the winner of Iowa’s caucuses has gone on to become the Democratic nominee.
Each candidate has had a specific strength. For former Vice President Joe Biden, it is his perceived electability, which made him the early favorite. Pete Buttigieg draws larger crowds than some of his rivals. Senator Bernie Sanders has won favor with working class voters by positioning himself against the rich and powerful. Senator Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has been in Iowa for over a year now, canvassing for support.
Those that are not frontrunners are also laser-focused on Iowa. Senator Amy Klobuchar’s campaign reports that she has over 100 staffers on the ground and 19 offices. These are similar numbers to Senator Warren’s campaign, which reports over 100 staffers and around 20 offices. Senator Sanders steals the show, though, with a reported 250 staffers and 23 offices.
All data aside, it’s still too early to tell who will take Iowa. Buttigieg, despite his large crowds, lacks minority support and has lost nine percentage points since November. Warren has been endorsed by Julián Castro, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama, after he dropped out of the presidential race. As the race ramps up and endorsements and infighting continues, the polls will continue to shift even into the final days before the caucuses.